For the record, let’s call Jan 13th a blind spot in the forecast series for 2020. It was all good to go last night, but for a number of inexplicable reasons, the publish button never got hit… and the possibilities for the day were down to idol speculation and a wider knowledge of wind and weather patterns in drought summers. For the record… fading 1′ waves were predicted on the Mid Coast ( not a brave call by any stretch ) and 3′ Middleton with NE winds mid-morning were predicted on the South Coast. As it turns out, this would have been the only offshore day between Goolwa and Parson’s in the forecast period.
The first cyclone for 2020 has appeared off the NW coast of Australia, and it’ll feed in a lot of moisture over the next few days – even bringing some rain to bushfire ravaged areas of Victoria and NSW. A series of troughs will drift across SA, and throughout the week the wind will fluctuate between the East and the South.
The Mid Coast will be similar to this morning early on Tuesday – clean with light SE winds but a bit full with surf around 1′ on high-tide reefs. The swell should hold around 3′ at Middleton but the wind will probably be light onshore early, building to 15 knots and really chopping it up after lunch. The swell will lift on The Mid after lunch courtesy of some new WSW swell, and waves may be 1 – 2′ by evening. West facing breaks over at Yorkes will be fun Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday should see a few 1 – 2′ waves on the Mid Coast, but at this stage, the wind looks like it’ll be almost dead south at 15 knots early. Most of the reefs will be bumpy if the wind is that strong from that direction, but there’s always a chance of a brief sou-easter early. The South Coast should have waves around 4′ at Middelton, but with 15 knot onshores picking up to 20 knots plus later, conditions will be dreadful. West facing breaks over at Yorkes will have decent swell, but you’ll need to find somewhere sheltered from a fresh southerly.
Thursday should open to a 10 – 15 knot sou-easter across the Fleurieu, and a few lingering 1 – 2′ waves on the Mid Coast. The swell will drop slightly on the South Coast , but a building southerly wind will offset that with chop. Middleton will be 3 – 4′ and sloppy. West facing breaks at Yorkes will be good in the morning, but as the south wind picks up with gusts over 25 knots, it’ll deteriorate.
The wind should have more East in it early on Friday so the Mid Coast will be clean, but the swell will have dropped overnight and surf will be around 1′. It’ll probably be smaller on the South Coast too, with 2′ waves at Middleton and brown, lumpy conditions thanks to the East wind.
Saturday looks Easterly as well, so the lumps will continue on the South Coast with Middleton around 1 – 2′. The Mid Coast will have Mally waves on the reefs of around 1′ and East winds in the 10 knot range for much of the day.
The wind will be favorable for west-facing breaks over at Yorkes Friday – Sunday, the swell won’t exactly be huge but you should find somewhere breaking well enough to get wet.