Category: News & Features

I heard there were people 300km west of Oodnadatta, with no radio, internet, or TV, who knew a big swell was about to slam the south oz coast.

Jokes aside, the biggest and most hyped swell of 2016 had been called as far as 10 days out, and expectations were high.  At around 5:50am on that Wednesday morning I pottered up the muddy track skirting the Bluff, and peered bleary eyed across the shark infested channel. I squinted hard looking for a burst of spray as the ( expected ) thumping SW swell smashed the giant granite boulder perched on the  island’s exposed western side, but saw no evidence. Undeterred, I pulled out the camera anyway, and adjusted settings to “too bloody dark to get a decent shot”.

Just after 6, a Suby wagon putt-putted up the track and pulled up nearby. The driver bounced across the road to where I stood, camera in hand perched atop the jagged boulders lining the high tide mark. “How’s it looking?” he asked, and as I half  stuck my bottom lip out like a dismissive frenchman I replied, “looks a bit marginal”.  Further up the track two bodyboarders had made the call, suited up, and started across the channel in the darkness. “Fuckit!” he said, frothing on the idea. “I’m out there!”. As the first rays of sun licked the ranges behind a still sleepy Victor Harbor, I did see a wave or two break through the infamous gap. I even rattled off a few shots because the light was nice. But it was far from epic. And it was gonna be bigger back in town.

Back on the road and round the big roundabout I caught a glimpse of No-man’s out west of Oliver’s reef. On the last big swell I videod three blokes out there negotiating 20 knot Nor-westers to pull into overhead barrelling bombs. But there was nothing like that happening, in fact the swell seemed to be rolling over the reef without breaking.  A quick diversion to The Dump revealed some fun looking 3 – 4′ waves with occasional bigger sets, and only  a puff of offshore NNW wind.

Up toward Chiton I could see a bit more size, and a couple of early campaigners making their way into the lineup.

One word… INCOMING!

The first week of May promises to deliver the biggest swell of 2016 to hit south oz, at least so far.  If the forecast is on the money, it should rate among of the top 5 swells of the last decade.

But what does it mean for city slickers looking for wave action close to the Adelaide GPO, or those lucky enough to be able to drop everything and go tow surfing somewhere waaaaaaaaaay out in the State’s west? Read on…

Out in the Indian ocean right about now are a couple of storms. Big ones. The chart shows it as a series of complex low pressure systems, but it’s the isobars that reveal how strong the winds are expected to be. The fetch is loooooong, so we’re talking about a fully developed sea where the swell is travelling faster than the storm(s).  This swell will have a strong Westerly component, and peak around Tuesday (May 3rd ) and into Wednesday. During Tuesday is probably when we’ll see the biggest waves at selected spots along the SA coastline.

So… you’d hope that with all this WSW-SW swell lighting up West facing breaks across the state we might get some SE-NE winds… but the opposite it more likely.

Tuesday looks pretty much blown out at all than the most sheltered spots, with 30 knot NW winds swinging West ahead of a SW change in the evening. Rising swell during Monday might open up some options late in the day with lighter winds, but probably Wednesday will be the pick of it as far as winds go. An easing Sou-wester should shift more NW after lunch and possibly drop under 10 knots by late Wednesday arvo.

model winds on May 1

The swell direction will mean the lion’s share of the swell will by-pass the Fleurieu’s South Coast, despite good winds. There still should be some good sized waves ( well overhead ) along the stretch from The Dump to Knights on Wednesday.

The Mid Coast will also see a bit of size on Tuesday but strong NW winds will destroy it at the more oft surfed breaks. It’s a day to go looking in unusual locations, preferably those offering shelter from NW winds. Wednesday should still be in the 3′ range, it’ll be bumpy in the morning but hopefully a bit cleaner later in the day. On Thursday winds will kick back around to the NW ahead of another trough toward the end of the week. It’ll probably be a bit bumpy all day.

Throughout the period the South Coast will be mostly offshore, except for maybe Wednesday morning. Despite the less-than-perfect swell direction exposed breaks will be pretty solid and clean after lunch on Wednesday.

The swell direction will mean Yorkes absolutely pumps, but the West facing breaks will all be wind effected – apart from later on Wednesday. Anywhere SW facing ( Chi’s, West Cape etc. ) will be very big and blown out on Tuesday, but should be clean and huge on Wednesday ( think 8 – 10′ range ).  You’ll also find waves at some lesser known spots over those two days, so if you can think of anywhere a monster WSW swell might wrap into and be offshore in NW winds, head there ( no hints offered! ).

Friday morning at this stage looks like light winds, so there may be another opportunity there for cleaner conditions on the tail end of a very big swell.

Hopefully, by the next update the interwebs will be chockers with crazy pics of huge south oz waves.

Watch this space…

I must admit that at the start of the last half of 2015, I was fairly optimistic about the rest of the year.

Sure… the first half of the year hadn’t produced epic surf, and the usually reliable April – May period was hardly memorable.  But there were still a number of good days on the Fleurieu and Yorke Peninsulas. And thanks to the start of a super-strong El Nino event, the water stayed a bit warmer a bit later in Autumn. Then there was the history of favourable surf in El Nino years – 2009 and 2006 more recently, but also looking back to the classic year of 1988 / 89.

Late August didn’t deliver as it had in 2012 and 2013, and by the end of September as things began to warm up, doubts had started to solidify.