Bit of a mixed bag coming our way this weekend, but the TL:DR is… go South early Saturday or miss out.
This week has been dominated by light wind and mild weather, but not a whole lot in the swell department. The week ahead is looking slightly better, but the uncertainty is larger than the last few weeks.
Let’s cut to the chase and say that if you want to surf the South Coast this weekend, you’ll need to hit it Saturday morning. The swell won’t be pumping but the great run of light offshore winds and clean conditions we’ve seen for the better part of the last week will prevail. Surf is looking around 2′ at Middleton, and it’ll probably be clean up until early arvo. The wind will swing West, then quickly go to an onshore Southerly after lunch. It won’t be all that strong, but it will be enough to take the shine off. The Mid Coast might be 1 – 2′ early Saturday but the N-NW wind will add bumps. Keep an eye on it… there looks like a few hours of light / variable winds through the middle of the day. Might even work with the incoming tide. Hell… it’s a Long shot…
Southerly winds will settle in on Sunday, and the South Coast will be onshore and bumpy. The breeze will only be 12 knots by the looks, and surf will be bumpy and probably only 1′. Wave heights on the Mid Coast will ease overnight on Saturday, leaving 1′ waves on Sunday. SSE winds at 15 knots look like adding bumps after lunch.
The Mid Coast will be nice and clean early on Monday with light ESE winds in the morning, but surf will probably only be around 1′. West facing breaks over at Yorkes will be bigger, also nice and clean all day. Surf should lift to 2′ or so on the South Coast, but with 10 knot SE winds, it won’t be special.
A new WSW swell should lift the Mid to around 1 – 2′ on Tuesday morning and very light ENE winds should keep it clean all day. West facing breaks over at Yorkes look great on Tuesday. The swell should lift after lunch on the South coast and it’ll be glassy most of the day. 2′ at Middleton with a few bigger sets by late arvo.
Wednesday will see the start of a pre-frontal trend, the weather will be fine with North winds picking up during the day. The Mid Coast should maintain a WSW swell and waves in the 1 – 2′ range, but the wind will keep it bumpy from sunrise to sunset. It’ll be clean on the South Coast, but offshores my blow it out after lunch at 20 -25 knots. Surf should be in the 1 – 2′ range at Middleton, slightly more size around at Waits.
Thursday should open to a new WSW swell and 2′ waves on the Mid Coast, but a 20 knot plus NW wind looks like adding plenty of bumps. The swell should lift wave heights to 3′ on at Middleton, but it’ll probably be blown out most of the day. The wind will probably swing to the West sometime between 10am and 4pm, with possible gusts over 25 knots.
A fresh W-SW airstream looks likely for Friday as a cold front moves through Southoz, the Mid Coast will probably be around 2′ but if there’s a stormy and the onshore gets up it’ll get bigger and messier. Surf will probably be in the 3′ range at Middleton and cross-onshore, so the good ol’ Bay might be the wave of last resort.
A new WSW swell is lining up for next weekend, so stay tuned for an update toward the end of the week.