Let’s not beat about the bush.
Last week’s forecast was probably the worst ever, or certainly in the top three. On a scale of one to train wreck, it probably ranks somewhere between dumpster fire and tyre fire. It’s hard to say where it all went to shit, but by as early as Wednesday it was looking wobbly with a large, unstable mass of cold air appearing South of Tassie, complete with a 965 low. As I type we’re still feeling the effects of that system, with howling WSW winds and air temperatures barely in the teens. They are predicting snow west of Sydney for Monday – the second day of summer.
From such a low bar ( and low temperatures ) things can only improve for the week ahead , but it’s still interesting.
The week will kick off with cool weather and fresh SSW winds on Monday. The Mid Coast will fade to around 1 – 2′ of mostly chop, but the swell will still be up on the South Coast with Middleton in the 4 – 5′ range. It’ll be onshore everywhere, so no real options.
A strong South swell will fill in overnight and Tuesday should dawn to 6′ surf at Middleton, possibly even bigger. Winds will be SW at 20 knots or so all day, so check sheltered spots. The Mid Coast will be messy and around 1 – 2′ all day.
The fading swell will still maintain some size on the South Coast on Wednesday, Middleton will be in the 5′ range and winds will be cross-onshore from the WSW at 20 knots. Once again, sheltered spots will be worth a gander. There’s also a coincident WSW swell that should lift size on the Mid Coast to around 2′, but the onshore wind will keep it messy.
Thursday looks interesting with a solid South swell peaking in the early morning, and light WNW winds from first light. Middleton should be back up around 6′ or more, so the exposed breaks between Port Elliot and Victor should be well lit around 8am. The wind will swing WSW later in the day and be less favourable. The Mid Coast will be wind affected and only 1′ all day.
The swell should remain strong from the South early on Friday, but the wind will be almost dead onshore from the South at 10 knots. Middleton will be around 5′ early but it will drop after lunch as the swell eases. The Mid Coast is looking bumpy and maybe 1′ with occasional bigger sets.
The breeze will kick around to the WSW on Saturday, 10 knots early but up to 20 knots later. The South Coast may be semi-clean in the early morning with a light land breeze, and 3′ surf at Middleton. The Mid Coast may pick up a few 1- 2′ sets on favorable parts of the tide.
We should finally get a glimpse of the summer sou-easter early on Sunday, but the breeze looks like it’ll swing more Southerly after lunch. The Mid Coast should remain around 1′. with surf up slightly to around 4′ at Middleton – but wind affected all day.
Next week is too hard to call at this stage, and given last week’s forecast spanking, let’s give it a few days before wildly speculating.