**Late update… Sunday could turn onshore early on the South Coast – bigger on Sunday but better wind Saturday. **
So here we are… at winter’s 66.66% mark, on a Friday night, marking the end of dry July. I say that advisedly because according to the Bureau of Meteorology, this year is the driest July on record in Adelaide. Ever. While that’s actually shitty news for all those trying to live off the land, it’s meant almost an entire month of offshore wind and clean conditions on the Fleurieu Peninsula’s South Coast for us incredibly self-centered surfers. As hard as it might be to fathom, the weekend is looking mostly the same.
The wind will be from the North and up early on Saturday, 10 – 15 knots on the Mid Coast and lighter down South early. The Mid will be bumpy and waves will only be around 1′, South is looking bigger but not much bigger with a less-than-ideal swell direction. Middleton should be clean and around 1- 2′, Waits and Parson’s will be your best bet for shortboard waves.
The swell will lift overnight and early Sunday is a good call for a trip South. Winds will be NE at 5 knots early, shifting NE then WNW mid arvo, but remaining light all day. Wave heights should lift from 2′ at Middleton to 2 – 3′ after lunch. The light cross-shore wind will be fine along the Middleton – Goolwa stretch after lunch, but it’ll be glassy in the morning. The Mid should also lift overnight, and will have 1′ waves with a few bigger sets on incoming tides.
A weak trough will swing winds to a light onshore Southerly early on Monday, the Mid Coast may be semi-clean early with 1 – 2′ waves. Middleton will be wind affected all day, more so after lunch as the Southerly builds to around 12 knots. Surf will pick up as the swell tends more SW, with bumpy waves around 3 – 4′.
The Southerly will gain energy ahead of an incoming HIGH into Tuesday, probably 17 knots in the morning and tending more SW after lunch and backing off slightly. The onshores mean null points on the South Coast which is a shame, because it looks like the surf will build to 4 – 5′ along open beaches. The Mid Coast will be bumpy and probably only around 1′.
Wednesday should see the breeze back around to the East, but the Mid Coast will be lucky if it’s shin-high. At least it’ll be clean. The East in the breeze will add unwelcome lumps along the South Coast, spoiling what would have been 4′ waves along the Middleton / Surfer’s stretch.
The Easterly looks stronger on Thursday, possibly 15 knots in the morning. Again, it’s bad news for the South Coast, surf should be in the 3′ range at Middleton but there will be plenty of lumps in the swell. The Mid Coast will be clean, maybe 1′ in the morning, but a new WSW swell should lift size to 2′ after lunch – possibly even bigger on the sets.
Friday should be back to light / variable winds, but that’s a fair way off. Things can, and will change quickly at this time of year. South Coast early Sunday may be the pick of the weekend, but you’ll get clean waves down there both days. Weather looks great too.
Get on it.