Monday’s forecast was not far off the money, and the South Coast did score offshore winds on Thursday as expected. Unfortunately the swell was now quite as co-operative, and Middleton was around 2′ in the morning and faded to an inconsistent 1′ after lunch. There was a glass off over the Fleurieu ( also predicted 🙂 ) mid arvo, and the tiny lines of SW swell attracted at least 20 SUP’s to U-turn’s. The change rolled through this morning as expected, and it’s not looking great with 20 knot SSE winds and 1′ waves on the Mid and slops down South.
Another large HIGH will roll in over the weekend and the wind will be mostly Easterly, and fresh from the SE in the afternoons. The Mid Coast will be 1′ on both Saturday and Sunday, clean early but possibly a bit blown out with ESE winds in the 17 knot range. The swell will peak overnight on the South Coast, but it should still be serving waves in the 4 – 5′ range at Middleton early Saturday. Quality will be dreadful with cross-shore ESE winds at 10 -15 knots, shifting SE later. West facing breaks over ta Yorkes won’t be big, but should have clean waves in the 2 – 3′ range over the weekend.
On Monday the breeze should drop under 10 knots in the morning, tending more ENE. The Mid Coast will be clean but waves will only be around half a foot, west-facing breaks over at Yorkes will do better. The South Coast is worth a punt on Monday with winds shifting North after lunch at around 10 knots and waves in the 2 – 3′ range at Middleton. There’s bound to be some leftover wobbles from a few days of E-SE winds, but it’s probably the best looking day in the forecast period.
The swell will wind down overnight and wave heights will be back to 1 – 2′ at Middleton on Tuesday. It’ll be clean but a bit blown out in the morning with winds possibly over 20 knots from the North. It looks similar to Thursday, with winds dropping out after lunch but swell fading with it. The Mid Coast will be bumpy early, glassing of later but waves will only be around half a foot.
A change is headed for SA on Wednesday, and should arrive between 2 and 4pm. Ahead of the change the wind will be fresh from the NW at 22 knots, shifting Westerly after lunch. The Mid Coast will be choppy and only half a foot early, but will probably build to around 2′ with fresh onshore winds late arvo. Middleton will be around 1′ and mostly blown out all day.
The change should leave a stormy behind on the Mid Coast on Thursday, and it may get to 3′ in the morning with 27 knot W-SW winds. Conditions will moderate after lunch and stormy venues look marginal. Surf will be semi-clean if slightly blown out on the South Coast, with waves around 1 – 2′ at Middleton. The swell will kick a bit after lunch but quality probably will not.
The swell will have a lot of West in it, and there’s chance it might just roll into Friday morning with easing winds. More on that in the next forecast.