Last week’s forecast went a bit off the rails toward the end of the period, but you’d have to say, if it had to happen it happened in a good way. October has so far produced two great days of surf across most of Southoz, including a surprisingly solid swell on the Mid Coast Friday arvo. As a bonus, the Northerly that had maintained some bumps all day finally gave up at 4pm, glassing off the gulf a treat, delivering glassy head-high sets to most of the reefs. So the billion-dollar question as we head into the first long weekend in yonks is, will this run continue?
A trough is heading in from the west and it’ll probably arrive on Saturday night. Ahead of it, winds will be from the North and probably 15 knots on the Mid Coast. There’ll be swell and a few 2′ waves, but South looks better tomorrow. The swell is clean and perfectly lined up from Goolwa to Parson’s this evening, and tomorrow looks about the same. The offshore won’t be too strong either – just enough to keep it smooth, and waves should be in the 3′ range at Middleton. The wind will start to drop after lunch, and there’s a good chance of a glass off at some stage. For the South Coast, Saturday is the pick of the period.
Sunday will dawn to a light Southerly breeze, probably under 5 knots but building to 20 knots after lunch. The Mid Coat might be glassy for a while in the morning, but gradually it’ll become bumpy as the wind picks up. Surf should remain in the 2′ range. There’s a slim chance it’ll be glassy on the South Coast with surf up to 3 – 4′ at Middleton, but it won’t last. Fresh southerlies will settle in by mid-morning and trash it for the rest of the day.
A 7 – 10 knot Southerly looks like maintaining a few bumps on the Mid Coast early Monday, but the wind should swing more SE after lunch and may be up around 17 knots at times. Surf will remain in the 2′ range. The South Coast will be messy with the onshore wind, Middleton will have surf in the 3 – 4′ range.
Tuesday / Wednesday are probably a good window for a Yorkes trip. The wind will be Easterly early Tuesday, tending SE at 15 knots after lunch. West-facing breaks will be fun, and even the Mid Coast will probably still manage a few 1 – 2′ waves. The South Coast will be lumpy and the swell will be bigger – closer to 4 – 5′ at Middleton. Some lesser-known spots west of Victor might be worth a gander.
The wind should be light on Wednesday, variable in the morning shifting SE at 5 – 7 knots after lunch. Surf will be smaller anywhere west-facing, the Mid Coast will be back to 1′ with rare bigger sets. Surf should be in the 3 – 4′ range at Middleton, and it may be glassy in the morning.
On Thursday the wind will probably be SE and in the 5 – 10 knot range, so the Mid Coast will be clean. There will be swell, but wave heights probably won’t get much over 1′. The swell will be more WSW in direction and surf at Middleton will most likely drop to 2′ or thereabouts. Cross-onshore winds will add lumps.
At this stage, Friday is looking like an in-between day with light / variable winds tending SE. Added to the mix is a new WSW swell due Friday / Saturday. That might all change between now and then, but there will be waves *somewhere* almost every day for the next week at least.